Social Movements in MENA

In my opinion, at the moment the conditions are rather unfavorable for a social movement to develop in the MENA region. As said by others and as mentioned in Eva Belin's reading in regards to the power of the coercive apparatus, authoritarian regimes in the MENA region still have the capacity to maintain a coercive apparatus which can press any kind of opposition. Belin argues that as long s this coercive apparatus enjoys the support of foreign powers, especially the waste it will be able to sustain itself. My prediction is that in a period of political turmoil the West will seek to maintain stability in the region to secure its own interests. Authoritarian regimes claim that they are the only ones who can maintain this stability and for many policy makers in the West this seems to be the case. Therefore the West will choose stability, over democracy, and will maintain a coercive apparatus which will be able to suppress any kind of movements. 

Besides this, it could be argued that the formation of a social movement is even more unlikely in the Gulf region, mostly due to the system of the rentier state. Citizens enjoy a vast amount of benefits from the state and it is more likely that they would like to maintain a status quo like that rather than overthrowing it. Discontent is a necessary prerequisite for the desire of a social movement, or at least change. On the surface this doesn't seem to be the case in the Gulf region, however it is likely the it would be so in the future when oil reserves will decrease dramatically. In fact civil society in the Gulf is mostly working in favor of the status quo rather than against it. This is the case in other countries as well such as Turkey. Thus, this makes the possibility of a social movement even more unlikely.