The strength of a MENA state (i.e. its ability to suppress revolutionary insurrection) stems from the support of two groups: its constituency and its allies.
Hazem Beblawi contends that MENA states can afford to break social contracts with their constituencies because of the nature of their rentier economies: People do not require or expect representation in government because they often have zero or little commitment in terms of taxation. To some extent, I agree with Beblawi. But I also think that a state can derive more strength if it has the support of the people it represents. For example, in Palestine, an entire faction of Hamas (the political organization, not the al-Qassam Brigades) is dedicated to providing people social services and managing pensions. Not everyone in Palestine likes Hamas, but those who benefit from the social services at least recognize some of the benefits they receive. If a revolutionary social movement is to be successful in retaining power after they seize it, the movement must find a way to provide or improve upon the services that the former administration provided, else people will be discontented with the new administration and may rebel. This is precisely what occurred in 2013 in Egypt, and what occurred after the deposition of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the 1990s. So the support of its constituency lends a state strength, and a social movement must win over that support if it is to be successful in the long term.
Support of allies also lends a state strength and may allow it to suppress social movements. Conversely, making additional external enemies may weaken a state and diminish its ability to stay in power. In Libya, for example, the Gaddafi regime found itself to be the focus of the pique of the United States and its NATO-backed coalition in 2011. The social movement in Libya surely would have failed had not air strikes by NATO decimated the state's infrastructure. The state, therefore, was essentially weakened because of how it was perceived by other world powers.
I like the fact that you took more than one country from the MENA region in order to demonstrate your argument. You've made excellent points on the need to have support from the people a government rules or that is a recipe for failure.
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